Larry Sabato

Larry Joseph Sabato (born August 7, 1952) is an American political scientist and political analyst.

He is the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia, where he is also the founder and director of the Center for Politics, which works to promote civic engagement and participation.

The Center for Politics is also responsible for the publication of Sabato's Crystal Ball, an online newsletter and website that provides free political analysis and electoral projections.

He is well known in American political media as a popular pundit, and is interviewed frequently by a variety of sources.

At the age of 15, Sabato joined Howell's first campaign for the Virginia governorship in 1968, and then worked on his successful run for lieutenant governor in 1971, and his campaigns for governor in 1973 and 1977.

Sabato is of Italian heritage.

Sabato grew up in Norfolk, Virginia, graduating from Norfolk Catholic High School in 1970.

Four years later, he graduated from the University of Virginia.

A 1974 Cavalier Daily poll showed more people could identify Sabato as student government president than could name Edgar F. Shannon Jr. as University president.

Sabato graduated Phi Beta Kappa as a Government major.

He followed his undergraduate degree with graduate study at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs for one year.

He was awarded a Rhodes Scholarship in 1975, which brought him to study at Queen's College, Oxford.

In less than two years he earned his doctorate in politics from Oxford.

Prior to his time as a political analyst, Sabato worked for nine years with Virginia Democratic Party politician Henry Howell.

Before becoming an academic at the University of Virginia, Sabato published works on the rise of two-party politics in the southern United States, most notably his 1977 publication of The Democratic Party Primary in Virginia: Tantamount to Election No Longer.

In 1978, Sabato became a member of the faculty at the University of Virginia.

Since then he has engaged in research and taught more than 14,000 students.

He is a University Professor and the Robert Kent Gooch Professor of Politics at the University of Virginia.

After analyzing evidence regarding the assassination, Sabato discredited the 1979 United States House Select Committee on Assassinations (HSCA) conclusion of a possible second shooter, stating that it was "blown out the water."

Sabato's Crystal Ball is run by the University of Virginia Center for Politics in Charlottesville.

The site contains analysis of an array of political races in the United States, including presidential elections, Senate, House, and gubernatorial contests.

Prior to the 2002 midterm elections, where the Republican Party saw gains in both branches of Congress, Sabato's Crystal Ball website accurately predicted the outcome in 433 of the 435 contests for the House of Representatives and 32 of 34 Senate races.

Other Sabato books include The Sixth Year Itch: The Rise and Fall of the George W. Bush Presidency, Divided States of America: The Slash and Burn Politics of the 2004 Presidential Election, and ''Get in the Booth!

A Citizen's Guide to the 2004 Election, and writes for Sabato's Crystal Ball''.

He has written textbooks used by high school and college American government classes, and has been a frequent guest analyst on cable news outlets and radio programs.

In 2004, when Republicans retained the White House and gained seats in the House and Senate, Crystal Ball correctly predicted the outcome of 525 of the 530 political races (99% accuracy), missing only one House race, one Senate race, one governor's race and two states in the Electoral College.

In 2005, Sabato made a $1 million contribution to UVA, the largest gift ever given by a faculty member.

Sabato is the author of over twenty books on politics, including Feeding Frenzy: Attack Journalism and American Politics and The Rise of Political Consultants: New Ways of Winning Elections. He is the co-author of Dirty Little Secrets: The Persistence of Corruption in American Politics with Glenn R. Simpson.

In August 2006, Crystal Ball predicted that the Democrats would gain 29 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 seats in the Senate, providing them with a majority in both chambers.

Sabato's predictions proved correct: each of his 33 Senate predictions were accurate, and in the House, Democrats gained 29 seats on election night, the precise total predicted by the Crystal Ball (Democrats went on to pick up a 30th seat in the December 12, 2006 run-off in Texas' 23rd district).

In 2006 Sabato was named the most accurate source of election predictions by MSNBC, CNBC, and Pew's Project for Excellence in Journalism.

In 2006, he was the only national analyst who correctly predicted the exact Democratic gains in Senate and House contests.

In July 2008, Crystal Ball correctly projected that Barack Obama would win the presidency in a near-landslide.

Sabato predicted a 364–174 margin in the Electoral College, as well as the popular vote percentages.

The prediction was merely one point off the mark, with the actual result on November 4, 2008, being Obama 365 to McCain 173.

Prior to Pendulum Swing, Sabato authored The Year of Obama in 2009 and A More Perfect Constitution in 2007, which discussed his ideas for amending the U.S. Constitution.

In January 2011, he published Pendulum Swing, which analyzed the 2010 midterm elections and the potential effect of Republican Party victories on the 2012 presidential, congressional, and state-level elections.

It did not predict an Obama win in Nebraska's 2nd district, as he did not make separate predictions for individual congressional districts in states that split their electoral votes on such factors (he started making separate predictions for such districts in 2012, probably because of this occurrence).

His book The Kennedy Half-Century: The Presidency, Assassination, and Lasting Legacy of John F. Kennedy. was published in 2013.

It focuses on John F. Kennedy's life, administration, and assassination and contains research from focus groups, polling, and interviews with colleagues and eyewitnesses.